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Wednesday, September 06, 2006


"Drowning Not Waving"

The Prime Minister is having a bad day. Starting with the leak this morning of the proposed date next May for his departure and ending up with a mass resignation of flunkies.

Now, I have to admit to having a hand in the odd leadership destabilisation operation so my observations come as a practitioner of this particular black art. Let no one be fooled that the underlings who jumped this evening were acting alone. The hand of he who would be king is all over this. Imagine being a lowly PPS being promised jam tomorrow in a Brown administration in return for a period on the backbenches at the fag end of Blairs' premiership. That promise would have to come from someone who could deliver. That promise would have had to come from Gordon Brown.

Today was about creating the momentum towards a Brown succession by putting the skids under the incumbent. Like a snowball hurtling down an Alpine hillside the end of Blair is speeding to its' inevitable conclusion. The only mystery is when that end comes.

Political plotting is heavily influenced by politicians' survival reflex and in Scotland and Wales the comrades are worried. The devolution elections are due in May 2007 and does anyone doubt that the Celtic fringe will use these mid-terms to punish Labour? Unless of course that party is under new management. And unless that management has a distinctly non English hue. In this Bloggers’ view Brown moves next door into number 10 before Christmas 2006.

What for our little local difficulty? Blair goes, Hain moves and talk of deadlines and joint stewardship seem as convincing as "I'm going to serve a full term". Oh, and by the way Scotland and Wales may be joined by another devolution election in May 2007...

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